17 February

Entry from the Tropical Cyclones blog, bulletin 124

SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S / Ivan
Warning 24 at 0900 GMT
Position: 17.1S 49.7E
Location 195 miles NE of Antananarivo, Madagascar
Movement: WSW at 8 knots
Maximum sustained winds: 100 knots
Maximum gusts: 120 knots
Threatened landmasses: Madagascar
Next update from JTWC at 1500 GMT

Tropical cyclone Ivan made landfall on Nosy Sainte Marie Island and will make landfall on mainland Madagascar near Soanierana-Ivongo. The storm will continue to head across Madagascar and reemerge into the Mozambique Channel. Ivan is not expected to regenerate, although that will be monitored closely.

HAZARD SUMMARY
Maximum significant wave height 28 feet
Tropical storm force winds occur within 105 to 125 miles of the centre.
Hurricane force winds occur within 35 miles of the centre

MADAGASCAR ADVISORY
Tropical cyclone Ivan is making landfall in the province of Toamasina, just north of Soanierana-Ivongo. The cyclone will carry winds of 190 km/h, with gusts of 230 km/h. Ivan is a category 3 system on the Saffir Simpson scale. Please bear in mind the radii quoted above, which indicate that galeforce winds and higher extend for 170 to 200 km from the centre.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami issues the following advice for a cyclone of this magnitude; please bear in mind this relates primarily to the USA. The impact in Madagascar is likely to be more severe.

• Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal.
• Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures.
• Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down.
• Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed.
• Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane.
• Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris.
• Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more.
• Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required.

Tags: hurricane, tropical, cyclone, ivan, madagascar